The Outcome of the German Elections – Continuity and Change?

Background

The German elections on 26 September 2021 marked a major shift in the German political landscape. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) received their lowest ever result of 24.1%, as Angela Merkel became the first post-war Chancellor to not stand for re-election, after 16 years in office and having concluded her fourth term as Chancellor. Although the CDU benefitted considerably from the support of the German public for Chancellor Merkel, and although it is not unusual for Germans to feel allegiance to the outgoing Chancellor but not to her party, the dramatic results raise more questions than answers about the future of Germany and the role of the CDU.

The Social Democrats (SPD) scored 25.7% of the vote, which was a considerable improvement from the previous Bundestag election four years ago when it won only 20.5% of the vote. The Green Party and Free Democratic Party (FDP) also gained more votes compared to the last national election in 2017, receiving 14.8% and 11.5% respectively.

Die Linke narrowly missed the 5% threshold required to get a seat in the Bundestag with a result of 4.9%. They will, however, remain in the Bundestag due to having won direct mandates in three electoral districts, which allows them to revive party list seats. Meanwhile, the right-wing party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), received 10.3%, compared to 12.6% in 2017. These votes were mostly concentrated in the eastern state of Saxony, with support also in Southern Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt.

Results

Party	No. of Seats – 2021	No. of Seats – 2017	Change Up/Down
CDU/CSU	196	246	-50
SPD	206	153	+53
AfD	83	94	-11
FDP	92	80	+12
Die Linke	39	69	-30
Alliance90/The Greens	118	67	+51

 

Chancellor Merkel’s imminent departure resulted in the re-surfacing of several national trends; geographical, political and demographic. Geographically, the voting turnout revealed a north/south divide in political preference, with the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), faring well in the southern states while the SPD made gains in the northern part of the country. On the political spectrum the left-right divide within Germany was flagged prior to the election by both Angela Merkel and her successor in the CDU, Armin Laschet, who cautioned against a would-be left wing coalition if the SPD and the Greens were to go into partnership with Die Linke. Since the election, it appears that the most likely configuration is of a three party coalition between the SPD, FDP and Greens or the CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens. A generational shift has occurred with the average age of members of the Bundestag standing at 42, according to media sources. This generational shift also represents a shift in policy priorities amongst the Members of the Bundestag (MDBs) and the public at large. Thus, the void left behind by Chancellor Merkel opens an opportunity for wide-reaching change and reform in German politics.  

Before the elections, Olaf Scholz, the Vice-Chancellor and Minister of Finance, positioned himself as Chancellor Merkel’s natural heir, notwithstanding the fact that he is the candidate for Chancellor for the largest rival party, the SPD. It remains to be seen whether Mr Scholz would deliver large scale reform or would proceed in a continuation of Chancellor Merkel’s policies and practices, if he were to become Chancellor, remains to be seen. Mr Scholz has indicated that a government led by him would focus on workers and jobs, including an increase in the hourly minimum wage and turning Germany into an exporter of green-energy technology. The CDU’s Armin Laschet, on the other hand, campaigned on the promise of a “decade of modernisation”, encompassing a focus on digitalisation, infrastructure and climate protection.

On foreign policy, Mr Scholz has indicated that he would align himself with Chancellor Merkel’s pro-EU stance and her mantra avoiding an over-reliance on the U.S. On China, both the CDU and FDP recognise its importance as a trading partner, but acknowledge it equally as a systemic rival with an increasing conflict of values. The SPD and Greens are more vocal on the issue, and both have condemned human rights violations against the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region of China.

On energy policy, the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the polarising affect this has on opinions both nationally and at an EU level, is a complex inheritance the next government will receive from the current Grand Coalition of CDU/CSU and the SPD. Both the FDP and the Green Party oppose the pipeline, with Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, FDP Foreign Policy Spokesperson, criticising the project as having “negligently neglected the diplomatic integration of the project with our partners in Europe and America for years”. Similarly, the Green Party favours a tougher stance on Russia than that adopted by Chancellor Merkel.

Possible Coalitions

This is the first time since the CDU led coalition under Konrad Adenauer in the 1950s that a three party coalition will be required to form a government. Due to ideological and policy differences, coalition talks which commenced directly after the elections are likely to take several weeks, if not months. The Greens and the Liberals (FDP) could determine the shape of the new coalition and have been referred to in the media as the ‘kingmakers’ of the next government. However, significant ideological and policy differences exist between these two parties, particularly on fiscal policy and climate, as outlined under the ‘Traffic Light’ coalition described below.

The threshold to form a government is 368 seats out of a total of 735 seats, and some of the mathematically feasible coalitions are set out below:  

1) ‘Traffic Light’: Red (SPD) -Yellow (FDP) -Green (Alliance 90/The Greens)

On policy matters, this coalition would have to bridge a big divide between the SPD and the Greens on one side versus the FDP on the other. Economic policy under this coalition would be a major sticking point. The Greens in their election manifesto, for example, have indicated their preference that the EU’s COVID-19 Recovery and Resilience Facility be integrated into the EU budget. The business-orientated FDP reject the notion of making the recovery instrument permanent and do not favour lifting the debt brake in Germany.

Similarly, significant differences exist on climate, with Mr Scholz framing 2038 as Germany’s coal exit date, while Annalena Baerbock, leader of Alliance 90/The Greens has called or an exit by 2030, and the FDP would leave the issues largely to innovation and market forces to rectify.

2) ‘Jamaica’: Black (CDU/CSU)-Yellow (FDP) -Green (Alliance 90/The Greens)

Similar differences on climate arise in this configuration, with the CDU/CSU outlining an ambition for climate neutrality by 2045, while the Greens want to achieve 100% renewable energy use by 2035. There is also division among the parties over the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Fund and whether this should be made permanent. The Greens would like it to be incorporated into the EU budget in order to facilitate democratic oversight. However, both the CDU/CSU and the FDP reject the idea of this fund becoming a permanent fixture of the EU budget.

3) The ‘Grand Coalition’: CDU/CSU and SPD

A so-called ‘Grand Coalition’, comprising the CDU/CSU and SPD has governed Germany since 2013, however neither the parties nor the electorate, have much appetite for such an outcome from the coalition discussions.

In the wake of severe floods in Germany in July 2021, and the increased global momentum towards combatting climate change, this election in Germany has been dubbed the ‘Climate Election’. The considerable gains made by the Green Party since the last national elections (an increase of 5.8% of the vote) may be interpreted as signalling the public’s support for stronger action on climate change than was achieved under the Grand Coalition.

Possible Implications for the EU and Ireland

According to a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations conducted in 12 EU member states, a significant majority of Europeans see Germany as an integrating force in the Union and a trustworthy, pro-European power, a fact which may largely be attributed to Chancellor Merkel’s focus on maintaining unity within the EU, through a decade buffeted by a series of rolling crises, most notably, the euro crisis, the migration crisis and the UK’s departure from the EU.

Chancellor Merkel also played this pro-EU role domestically and succeeded in advancing the idea within Germany of the role the country should play in the Union. Germany is frequently depicted as a ‘reluctant hegemon’, a role that the new government will need to either embrace or avoid. Given the pro-European stance in the majority of party manifestos, with the notable exception of the AfD, Chancellor Merkel’s successor will aim to continue to play this unifying role in the EU.

Whilst both the CDU/CSU and SPD remain committed to the centrality of the EU for Germany’s future, their manifestos lack clear direction on the future of European integration. If Chancellor Merkel’s successor is less committed to Europe, the default presumption is that France would transition to this leadership role. While the French President, Emmanuel Macron, would consider himself well positioned to assume this role at present, it is important to note that France too will hold elections, in early 2022, which may alter this dynamic.

Regarding the future of the EU, all of the potential coalition parties are in favour of EU treaty reform. The Greens and FDP believe that the ongoing Conference on the Future of Europe is the vehicle through which treaty change should be accomplished. Moreover, both the Greens and the SPD are in favour of further integrating the Western Balkans with the bloc, while the CDU/CSU wish to prioritise ensuring unity of the 27 Member States, in continuation of Chancellor Merkel’s policy of preventing the fragmentation of the Union and continuing the debate on deepening rather than widening the EU.

Against a backdrop of stubborn challenges to the values espoused by the EU in several Eastern European Member States, this election in Germany reflects the stability of German politics. The voting system is designed to provide choice and avoid polarisation, contrasting starkly with the current political landscape in the UK and the US. As the largest and most influential Member State in the EU, this avoidance of political extremities may be seen as a positive and stabilising factor for the Union. Furthermore, the expectation that the next government will be a coalition will necessitate compromise and balance, important attributes in a union which seeks to decide on policy for 27 different countries.

Germany and Ireland have enjoyed a close relationship under Chancellor Merkel, with deepening trade relations and frequent bilateral visits. While Olaf Scholz is quite familiar to several key figures in the Irish Government, such as Paschal Donohue, due to their work together as part of the Eurogroup, Armin Laschet is a less familiar figure. However, it is likely that either candidate for the chancellorship favour continuity in this relationship. In continuation of Chancellor Merkel’s understanding of and support for the Irish border question following Brexit, Olaf Scholz has already declared continued German support for Ireland and the peace process, if he were to become Chancellor.

The shift in support away from the main traditional parties in German politics and towards the Green Party, the Liberals and the SPD is indicative of an electorate seeking change. While policy change in the wake of Chancellor Merkel’s departure is inevitable, the various government coalition options also provide for a certain degree of continuity, for both Germany and the EU.

As the fulcrum of the European Union, a certain degree of continuity in the Bundestag and the German Government, albeit peppered with elements of reform, would be preferable from the perspective of the Germans and their European partners. In providing such continuity and stability, and with the promise of reform in areas such as climate and foreign policy, the election results will enable Germany to continue to play a key role in shaping the future direction of the EU.