The JCPOA Stalemate: The Future of the Iran Nuclear Deal

Introduction 

Following the publication on 21 June 2021 of the UN Secretary-General’s latest report on the implementation of resolution 2231, the Security Council convened on 30 June 2021 to discuss the status of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). Under-Secretary-General (USG) for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, introduced the Secretary-General’s report to Council members and EU Ambassador to the UN, Olof Skoog, updated the Council on the work of the JCPOA’s Joint Commission.[1] Finally, Permanent Representative of Ireland to the UN, Geraldine Byrne Nason, reported on her work as facilitator for resolution 2231. This blog provides an assessment of that meeting in the context of the Secretary-General’s report and of the overall political dynamics within the UN Security Council and considers Ireland’s position on the Iran nuclear deal.

Political dynamics in the Security Council on the JCPOA 

While all UN Security Council members support the JCPOA, the political dynamics between the P5 on Iran have been characterised by deep divisions, particularly between Russia and China on the one hand, and the US, the UK and France on the other. These divisions reached their zenith in recent years as a direct result of the Trump administration’s ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran and efforts by that administration to impose the ‘snapback’ mechanism under resolution 2231, which would restore all UN sanctions on Iran. All other Security Council members categorically rejected the US attempt to reimpose UN sanctions in August 2020.

Parallel to the Security Council discussions in New York, since April 2021, the remaining parties to the JCPOA (China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and Iran), under the auspices of the Joint Commission and under chairmanship of the EU, have been engaged in diplomatic discussions in Vienna to negotiate the potential pathway for a revival of the deal. These ongoing diplomatic exchanges, which have involved direct talks between the remaining parties to the deal and indirect negotiations between the US and Iran, have given cause for optimism.

Reports of incremental progress in the indirect talks between the US delegation, which is led by the US Special Envoy for Iran, Rob Malley, and the Iranian delegation, which is led by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, and the notable shift in rhetoric from the US administration under President Biden indicate that a revival of the deal may be on the horizon. Moreover, the progress made in Vienna to date increases the likelihood of a resumption of constructive diplomacy on resolution 2231 at the Security Council in New York.

There is also a strong impetus to uphold the deal among the remaining participants of the JCPOA, including France and the UK, which have consistently emphasised the importance of preserving the deal, particularly its nuclear-related provisions. Along with the US, they expressed con­cerns over the expiry of arms-related restrictions in October 2020 and Iran’s destabilising behaviour in the region, which the Biden administration has committed to addressing in a follow up agreement, once the JCPOA is restored. Yet, there is no indication from Iran that it would engage in a follow up agreement without guarantees that a future US administration would not unilaterally withdraw from it. 

On the other hand, Russia and China have indicated that they would not recognise any reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran, arguing that the basis for the existence of sanctions, i.e., ensuring that the nature of Iran’s nuclear programme remains purely civilian, was removed with the signing of the JCPOA. They have also rejected claims by the US administration that Iran is acting in breach of JCPOA provisions, such as the process of producing enriched uranium which might be used to develop a nuclear weapon.

Moving the needle on the JCPOA at the Security Council

In the meeting of the UN Security Council on 30 June 2021, UNSC members discussed  the eleventh report of the Secretary-General on the implementation of resolution 2231.

While USG Di Carlo acknowledged how the context for the implementation of the deal had improved considerably since the US notified its intention to re-join, she pointed out that the report indicated worrying steps taken by Iran to reduce its nuclear-related commitments under the Plan. She further outlined how the report highlighted the need for the US to lift sanctions on Iran and for Iran to reverse breaches to the deal and to co-operate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 

In addition, UNSC facilitator for the 2231 resolution and Irish Permanent Representative to the UN, H.E. Geraldine Byrne Nason, emphasised that the report of the Secretary-General provided a factual account of the situation regarding the implementation of resolution 2231 and highlighted in detail the consultations carried out by Ireland as facilitator with UNSC members on this file. She echoed USG DiCarlo’s statement that the JCPOA was a major achievement in nuclear non-proliferation and remained the best way to guarantee the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear programme. 

While all UNSC members emphasised the importance of the JCPOA to the global nuclear non-proliferation architecture, there were notable divergences of opinion in relation to actions taken by Iran since the US withdrawal in 2018. The US criticised Iran for continuing to develop ballistic missiles with nuclear capacity and for producing enriched uranium in breach of the resolution. It also stated that it would continue to act to combat terrorism and instability caused by Iran in the region.  

However, China and Russia firmly rejected claims that Iran had acted in breach of the deal and argued that Iran’s actions were appropriate in the context of the US withdrawal and imposition of illegal unilateral sanctions. While both China and Russia acknowledged the progress made in the Vienna negotiations, they stated that the survival of the deal depended on the US returning to full compliance by lifting all remaining unilateral sanctions on Iran as the first step. 

While reports of progress at the negotiations in Vienna and the rhetoric emanating from the Biden administration indicate things are moving slowly in in the right direction, opposing views among the P5 in relation to where responsibility for the current stalemate of the JCPOA should lie, must also be resolved around the table in New York if the deal is to be preserved in the long run.   

Ireland’s position on the JCPOA 

Ireland has maintained a consistent position on the JCPOA ever since it was agreed and endorsed by resolution 2231 in 2015 and now plays a key role in overseeing the implementation of the deal as UNSC facilitator for resolution 2231. 

In the aftermath of the IAEA’s report that Iran had complied with initial key steps to limit its nuclear programme in January 2016, Ireland welcomed the subsequent lifting of EU sanctions on Iran as “a critical landmark” in the implementation of the agreement.  

Following the US decision to withdraw unilaterally from the JCPOA in May 2018, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Simon Coveney, indicated Ireland’s disappointment that the US had decided to renege on “a significant diplomatic achievement” and reaffirmed Ireland’s view that all parties should continue to implement the agreement. 

Ever since taking its seat on the UN Security Council in January 2021, Ireland has adopted a firmly multilateral approach to this file. While Ireland has aligned itself with the EU approach to ensuring the survival of the JCPOA, it has also acknowledged the concerns of both the US and Iran.

Furthermore, at the Security Council meeting on 30 June 2021, Ireland used the occasion to reaffirm its strong commitment to the JCPOA and emphasised its importance as an achievement in multilateral diplomacy and nuclear non-proliferation. Moreover, Security Council members praised Ireland for its work as facilitator of resolution 2231, further legitimising its reputation as an honest broker with a strong commitment to multilateralism.

Permanent Representative, Geraldine Byrne Nason, welcomed positive steps such as the US withdrawal of the snapback policy and the diplomatic progress which has been made in the Vienna negotiations. She further noted Ireland’s concern at Iranian breaches of the deal and urged Iran to return to full compliance and for the US to lift all sanctions so that the Iranian people could see tangible benefits from the deal. 

Breaking the stalemate

While the progress of diplomatic engagements in Vienna and positive reactions to the report of the Secretary-General would seem to indicate that the overall dynamics reflect a move in the right direction, the status of the JCPOA remains fragile. Despite positive verbal declarations, the US has still not lifted all economic sanctions against Iran. For its part, Iran continues to breach provisions of the deal on the basis that the US must make the first move to return to full compliance.  

The survival of the JCPOA enters a crucial stage in the coming month. Despite recent positive developments, the election of Ebrahim Raisi - a conservative former judge who has said that he would not meet with President Biden - in the Iranian Presidential election on 18 June 2021 may serve to undermine the momentum towards the survival of the deal. The impetus to revive the deal prior to the inauguration of Raisi as President of Iran in August 2021 could not be more urgent. In light of the conclusion of the sixth round of talks in June 2021, the time has come for tough political decisions to be made in order to finally break the stalemate and revive the deal.