The 2024 Portuguese Elections: A Swing to the Right | IIEA
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The 2024 Portuguese Elections: A Swing to the Right

by Emma Richardson

On Sunday, 10 March 2024, Portugal held a snap election to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic, Assembleia da República, following the resignation of Prime Minister António Costa in November 2023. Mr Costa’s resignation came after allegations of corruption and investigation into his administration's misuse of funds. The 2022 elected government, led by Prime Minister Costa, was already unstable at the time of the Election, with the resignation of 11 Secretaries of State and 2 Ministers by summer 2023. The 2024 snap Election meant that a reshuffle of the 230 seat Assembly was likely, and that the Socialist Party (PS), now under new leadership by Pedro Nuno Santos, would lose support. The outcome saw the centre-right Democratic Alliance, made up of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) and People's Monarchist Party (PPM) win 79 seats, the PS win only 77 seats, and the far right, Chega party coming third with 48 seats, indicating an evident swing to the Right.

Portugues Politics at a Glance

In 1975, following the Carnation Revolution which overthrew the authoritarian Estado Novo government, Portugal transitioned from dictatorship to democracy, where the elected Portuguese government was given executive power. The elected government, the Assembly of the Republic, serves a four-year term with 230 members of government sitting in the Assembly. The President of Portugal, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, came to power in 2016 and was re-elected in 2021. The President is associated with the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the leading party in the Democratic Alliance (DA).

The 2022 election saw the Socialist Party (PS) win an absolute majority, securing 120 seats out of 230 in the Assembly of the Republic. The main opposition, formed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), won 77 seats, with the Chega party taking only 12 seats. The other political parties and alliances that took seats in the 2019 election included: Liberal Initiative (IL) with 8 seats; The Unitary Democratic Coalition (PCP + “The Greens”) with 6 seats; The Left Bloc (BE) with 5 seats; People-Animals-Nature (PAN) with 1 seat; and LIVRE with 1 seat. Meanwhile, The CDS – People’s Party lost seats from the previous Assembly.

Ahead of the Election, it was well known that the impact of the housing crisis, stress on public services and low wages would play a factor in voting behaviour. In a Politico article published on Friday, 8 March 2024, ahead of the 2024 election, Aitor Hernández-Morales said: “The outcome is anybody’s guess: Polls indicate that the blocs formed by right- and left-wing parties are nearly evenly matched, and that the far-right Chega party could be the kingmaker.”

Results & Analysis of the 2024 Election

On election day over 6.1 million voters went to the polls, marking a 66.23% turnout. The results of the election showcases the beginning of the  “most fragmented parliament ever”, with Chega making large gains in the political process.

Table 1. Election Results

Party

No. of seats 2024

No. of seat 2022

Change Up/Down

Democratic Alliance (PSD/CDS-PP/PPM)

79

76

+3

The Socialist Party (PS)

77

120

- 43

CHEGA (CH)

48

12

+36

Liberal Initiative (IL)

8

8

-

Left Bloc (B.E.)

5

5

-

Unitary Democratic Coalition (PCP/"The Greens")

4

6

-2

LIVRE

4

1

+3

People - Animals - Nature

1

1

-

 

The results show that the Democratic Alliance (DA), made up of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) and People's Monarchist Party (PPM), have won the most seats. However, they did not win a governing majority of seats in the parliament, which poses the question - what’s next? [CF1] 

The results imply that Chega will have some power in whether the Democratic Alliance can form a government and illustrates the influence that far right ideology and politics will have on Portuguese governance. Luís Montenegro, the Democratic Alliance’s leader replied to their victory as the people of Portugal deciding on “a change of government and of policies.”

For Mr Montenegro to form an assembly majority of 116 seats, an alliance with Chega would make the most sense numerically. However, the Democratic Alliance (DA) leader has repeatedly said that any deal with the Chega party would be ruled out due to the nature of its leader, André Ventura, who’s views are “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic” according to Mr Montenegro. This leaves the Democratic Alliance (DA) leader in a difficult situation, and it is expected that he may come under pressure from within the Alliance to reach an agreement with Chega to secure a centre-right government, albeit leaning slightly further right than the DA had hoped.  Of course, there is also the option that the Democratic Alliance (DA) could work with the Socialist Party (PS) to unite against Chega, leaving Mr Ventura in isolation. However, as the Chega leader stated in the aftermath of the election: “[the vote] clearly showed that the Portuguese want a government of the AD with Chega.”

 In addition to this, the votes of Portuguese citizens living abroad also need to be counted to elect four deputies into the Assembly. This process is set to take place from 18 – 20 March, with over 210,000 ballot letters received, amounting to nearly 13.5% of the ballot papers for the election. It is likely that the Socialist Party (PS) will win two seats, while the Democratic Alliance will also gain two, which won’t affect the current balance of power. However, there is still an opportunity for the Socialist Party (PS) if three out of the four deputies elected went to their party, tying the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Socialist Party (PS) on 80 seats. For now, it is a waiting game for the Democratic Alliance (DA), Chega, the Socialist Party (PS) and the rest of the political parties, as the country awaits the next move from the President, Rebelo de Sousa, to formally invite the winning party to form the next Portuguese government after the four deputy seats are announced.

Implications for Ireland and the EU

The Portuguese Election results showcase the rising popularity of far-right ideologies and politics in Europe. Following the announcement of Chega’s gains in the Assembly, far-right leaders praised the party and acknowledged the Portuguese electorate’s ‘breakthrough’. Leaders who praised the Democratic Alliance (DA) and its leader were few and far between, with Manfred Weber, the leader of the conservative European People’s Party in the European parliament, stating the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Mr Montenegro had been chosen “because he can lead the change Portugal needs, towards a better future.” On the other hand, congratulations from far-right leaders poured in from all over Europe, from Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of Spain’s conservative People’s Party; Jordan Bardella, ​the president of France’s National Rally; and Ádám Samu Balázs, ​the head of the international secretariat for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party to name a few.

Out of 27 Member States, the socialists now only govern in 4 countries, a worrying statistic for the S&D group, the EU’s parliamentary grouping of European socialists, ahead of the European Parliament Elections in Juner of this year. The rise of the Right in Portugal also raises questions over governance in Spain, with the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) managing to maintain its leadership position in the 2023 election, but with the conservative People’s Party and Vox trailing not too far behind and very willing to form a centre-right/right government together.

While the Right is certainly growing in Portugal and in Europe, it is worth noting that the former Socialist Party (PS) leader António Costa is not necessarily removed from the European political sphere just yet. As the Socialists eye up the position of the President of the European Council in order to maintain a hold on EU politics, Mr Costa has been named as a front-runner for the position, given his strong connection with other EU leaders and his role in bringing Portugal out of the eurozone crisis. Nevertheless, the scandal that still hangs around Mr Costa’s name may cost him the position, as the Socialists’ ideal candidate would be “someone who won’t use the job as a springboard for their personal ambitions, but will instead stick to the agenda and focus on forging compromises”. It remains unclear whether Mr Costa will be disappearing into the chorus of European politics straight away.

For a small liberal EU country like Ireland, it may be a case of watching the far-right play unfold. The far-right parties who received less than 0.3% of the vote in the 2020 General Election, are the leaders of burgeoning far-right political landscape in Ireland. However, rising anti-immigration sentiment has led to an increase in vocal far-right supporters who, for the present, remain a “small but growing minority.”

The waiting game continues to see if the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) will be able to form a stable government, and whether or not that swing to the Right will mean the involvement of Mr Ventura and the Chega party in Portugal’s next Government.