The 2022 Portuguese Elections: The Centre-Left Consolidates Power
Background
Portugal held snap parliamentary elections for the unicameral 230 seat Assembly of the Republic, (Assembleia da República) on 30 January 2022 which resulted in an unexpected outright majority for the ruling Socialist Party (Partido Socialista/PS) of Prime Minister António Costa. PS can now govern alone without the support of far-left parties as they had done heretofore. The election also marked a shift in support at the edges of the Portuguese political spectrum, with a sharp rise in support for the far-right Chega! and a decline in support for the centre-right Partido Social Democrato (PSD) and CDS-PP, and the far-left BE, PCP and PEV parties (see table 1).
Before this election, Portugal was governed by a caretaker minority government led by Prime Minister Costa’s PS before January’s election, PS held 108 seats in the Assembly, eight short of a majority, and was in an improvised confidence-and-supply agreement dubbed a ‘geringonça’, which loosely translates as ‘odd gadget’ or ‘contraption’, given the novel union between parties from across the usually contested left part of the political spectrum. Costa had reached the arrangement with four other parties, namely the far-left Bloco de Esquerda (BE) who held 19 seats, the Coligação Democrática Unitária (CDU), a union of the Portuguese Communist Party, Partido Comunista Português (PCP) who held ten and the Ecologist Party “The Greens” (PEV) with two.
The primary opposition party was the centre-right PSD which held 79 seats in the Assembly. The opposition also consisted of a range of smaller parties on the far-right and far-left, including: the traditional Christian-conservative Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular (CDS-PP) with five seats; the left-wing animal-rights and environmentalist Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (PAN) with four; and with the far-right nationalist conservative Chega! (Enough!); the classical liberal Iniciativa Liberal (IL) Liberal Initiative; and the eco-socialist LIVRE parties with one seat each.[1]
On 27 October 2021, the two parties in the CDU alliance (Communist and greens), which had been supporting the minority government, rejected the budget bill and defected to the opposition. The subsequent failure to form a government led to President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announcing snap parliamentary elections, set for 30 January 2022. This also prevented Portugal allocating and spending the majority of its allocated COVID-19 recovery funds as part of the European Union (EU) Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).[2]
Portuguese Politics
Portugal is a unicameral parliamentary system and has been governed by PS- and PSD-led governments only since the 1974 Carnation Revolution and the transition to democracy. Before the peaceful revolution, Portugal had an authoritarian military dictatorship, the Estado Novo, engaged in several costly wars to maintain its colonial possessions in Africa (Mozambique, Guinea-Bissau and Angola). The dissolution of the Estado Novo regime also meant the end of these wars and of independence of Portuguese territories, leading to the swift dissolution of the Portuguese empire and arrival of over 600,000 retornados to Portugal from the colonies. The prominence of left-wing parties in Portuguese politics, relative weakness of far-right movements and openness to migration can be traced back to this democratisation wave.
A minimum of 116 seats are required for a majority in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic. Parliamentarians are elected from 22 multi-seat constituencies via a party list proportional representation system which privileges larger parties over smaller ones. Constituency sizes are determined by population ranging from 48 representatives (in Lisbon) to two (Portalegre, Overseas-Europe, and Overseas-Rest of World). Notably, the Portuguese legislature is one of only a handful of countries that includes representatives specifically elected by Portuguese citizens living abroad, alongside the likes of France and Italy. There are no minimum electoral thresholds for candidates, unlike in other countries such as Germany or Greece, and while MPs are elected on a constituency basis, they are constitutionally bound to represent the interests of the country as a whole and not just those of their constituents in a bid to address concerns over corruption and clientelism.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Portuguese Government requested advice from the Portuguese Attorney-General to accommodate voters in quarantine.[3] A decision was made to allow voters, who were isolating due to COVID-19, to cast their ballots between 6.00p.m. and 7.30p.m. on election day, Sunday,30 January 2022.[4] Notably, the turnout was 57.9%[5] compared to 48.6% in 2019,[6] an increase of nine percentage points, despite COVID-19 restrictions.
Results
Table 1: Election Results[7]
Analysis
This snap election highlighted two conflicting trends in the Portuguese electoral landscape. On the left, there was a centripetal inertia as voters coalesced around Prime Minister Costa’s centre-left PS, whiles support for the far-left BE, PAN, LIVRE parties and the PCP-PEV alliance remained flat or collapsed. In contrast, the right of the political spectrum saw increased centrifugal tendencies, as the traditional parties of the centre-right effectively held stable with only minor losses, while the libertarian IL and far-right Chega! parties grew sharply along the western coast amongst more educated voters, and along the more rural agrarian border region with Spain.[8]
The decline in support for the traditional centre-right parties of PDS and CDS-PP marks a shift away from the traditional bastions of centre-right political support in favour of a more pro-business, deregulatory approach espoused by IL, and the more nationalist-inspired vision of Chega!. It is notable that these two parties to the right of PDS and CDS-PP emerged in the wake of the Portuguese leg of the post-2008 financial crisis to protest the country’s EU-IMF bailout (2011-2014). The enduring political divisions across the Portuguese right was laid bare by the right-wing parties’ inability to form a coalition during the last coalition, despite having the numbers to govern, leading to a minority PS-led government with support from the far-left.
Prime Minister Costa’s PS were clearly the big winners of this recent election. The Prime Minister returned to office with an unexpected absolute majority of 117 seats and 41.7% of the vote. This represented an increase of 11 seats compared to 2019. The PS came first in every single mainland constituency in Portugal, only failing to top the polls in the island of Madeira.[9] The Prime Minister’s party was successful for three main reasons: it is widely seen as a sober and sensible party of government, after six years in office; the Prime Minister’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic; and the party’s success in portraying PCP-PEV and BE as the reason for the failed budget, the subsequent political uncertainty, and the disruption of a snap winter election.
The centre-right PSD had a disappointing result, underperforming expectations and losing three seats, despite slightly increasing their total vote share compared to 2019. Following the result, the leader of the PSD and of the opposition, Rui Rio, announced his resignation, triggering a leadership contest in the party. The Christian democrat party CDS-PP, a traditional kingmaker party and coalition member of conservative coalitions, lost all five of their seats for the first time since the country’s transition to democracy.
Besides the PS, the far-right Chega! and libertarian IL, were the other winners. They now represent the third- and fourth-largest parties in parliament with 12 and eight seats, respectively. Their parliamentary gains now mean that they qualify to form parliamentary groups, granting them greater influence and profile within the Assembly. These include: the power to decide on the order of business in parliament; call emergency debates; exercise legislative initiative; and propose motions of no confidence, amongst other privileges. Chega! and IL will each be able to propose vice-presidents and secretaries to the Bureau of the Assembly which runs the business of parliament and will have a greater proportional share of seats and chairs in parliamentary committees.[10]
The main losers were those parties on the far-left, particularly the PCP-PEV alliance and the BE who were associated with the collapse of the previous PS-led government due to their opposition to the 2022 budget. The communist PCP lost four seats, to hold six with 4.4% of the vote, while the PEV Greens lost both of their seats, exiting parliament altogether. The left-wing BE endured the single greatest losses, falling from 19 seats to five following the results, losing out to both the PS and Chega!.
Possible Implications for Ireland and the EU
Based on the results, the centre-left PS have been strengthened with a reinforced mandate to govern with a narrow, but absolute majority in parliament of 117 seats. As the leader of the largest party, Prime Minister Costa will be invited by President Rebelo de Sousa to form a government following the election. This means that PS will not be forced into potentially difficult negotiations with those far-left parties who withdrew their support and brought down the previous government.
While the precise allocation of ministerial portfolios is yet to be confirmed, the overall direction of the PS government is likely to reflect the previous minority government’s, with an emphasis on social protection measures including increases in pension and minimum wage payments in response to the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic despite Portugal’s very high vaccination rate.[11] The success of PS in espousing anti-austerity policies while reducing the national budget deficit have effectively positioned them to continue as the natural party of government in Portugal.
Prime Minister Costa underscored that while PS may have won an absolute majority, it “is not absolute power, it’s not about governing alone”,[12] and that the PS would seek consultation and dialogue with other parties in order to forge consensus around Portugal’s recovery and resilience plan, while confirming that the PS will not breach their cordon sanitaire around cooperating with the far-right nationalist Chega!.
Seen from Ireland, the Portuguese election result bodes well for European stability and Lisbon is likely to continue pushing for greater social protections and redistributive measures at the European level in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic recovery programme and the European Green Deal. The relative success of the far-right Chega! party may further politicise debate over migration and social welfare reform in Portugal, especially in relation to the Roma minority who were regularly targeted by Chega! leader, André Ventura, during the election campaign.[13] However, a strengthened hand for Prime Minister Costa will reinforce the socialist and social democratic parties in Europe, in particular the beleaguered socialist-led government in Spain and could give Portugal greater leeway in the European Council.
EU affairs were not prominent during the election campaign, although the EU-funded recovery and resilience plan of €16.6bn was a key issue, due to its consequences for the future form and direction of the Portuguese economy. Portugal held the Presidency of the Council of the EU in the first half of 2021, during which time the Costa-led government clearly articulated their support for a more social and inclusive Europe and for a greater emphasis on the social dimensions of the EU’s COVID-19 recovery efforts.
Polling ahead of the election had predicted a tight race between the centre-left PS and centre-right PSD[14], but the outright majority won by the PS came as a surprise for many. Following the victory, the socialist Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, congratulated Costa, and underlined his support for an Iberian-led “socialist response” to the challenges facing Europe.[15] In terms of foreign policy, the socialist majority government is unlikely to deviate from its existing course, with a focus on deepening EU-India and EU-Brazil ties high on the agenda, as well as keen support for a meaningful EU-Africa partnership given Portugal’s significant commercial, energy and defence interests in Mozambique, Angola, Morocco and Algeria, alongside retornados family links like Costa himself, whose father was born in Mozambique to a Goan family.
While the outward face of Portuguese politics may not appear to have changed that much following the election, a more stable secure socialist-led government for the next four years could strengthen Portugal’s ability to shape domestic reforms and advocate for a more socially ambitious European economic recovery. On the European stage, the election result has cemented Prime Minister Costa’s position as one of the longest serving European heads of government, and the most senior voice of social democracy in the European Council where socialists are now in more EU governments than any other political group. Alongside leaders from Spain, Malta, Germany, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, Portugal is poised to play an influential role on the European stage and guiding the Union’s future economic shape and direction for an economic recovery which takes greater account of social protection issues.
[1] https://www.cne.pt/sites/default/files/dl/2019ar_mapa_oficial_resultados.pdf
[2] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_2985
[5] https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/resultados/globais
[6] https://www.cne.pt/sites/default/files/dl/2019ar_mapa_oficial_resultados.pdf
[7] The four seats for the two overseas constituencies have yet to be allocated.
[11] https://www.ft.com/content/e49275e3-4c5e-4554-a9de-8956a6361810
[12] Portugal's PM Costa stuns with majority win in snap election | Reuters
[14] Tracking Poll: PSD approaches PS. CDU, BE, Chega and IL separated by a few tenths - CNN Portugal (iol.pt), Projeção dá vitória ao PS com 37 a 42% dos votos (rtp.pt)
[15] https://twitter.com/sanchezcastejon/status/1487906015752376321