The 2022 Maltese Elections: Labour Landslide

Background  

On Saturday 26 March 2022 Malta held early parliamentary elections for the unicameral 67-seat House of Representatives (Kamra tad-Deputati) resulting in a landslide victory for the incumbent centre-left Partit Laburista (PL), led by Prime Minister Robert Abela.  

The government held 37 seats, one of just two EU governments with an absolute majority (the other being Portuguese Prime Minister Costa’s centre-left government). The centre-right Partit Nazzjonalista (Nationalist Party) (PN) led the opposition with 28 seats. The remaining two seats were held by AD-PD, a green progressive alliance of the Democractic Alternative (AD) and Democratic Party (PD). On 20 February 2022, Prime Minister Abela requested President George Vella dissolve Parliament. This brought the scheduled general election forward 10 weeks. 

The previous government, led initially by Joseph Muscat and from January 2020 by Robert Abela, was elected in a snap election on 3 June 2017. The election was called following the publication of the Panama Papers, which implicated then-Prime Minister Muscat as well as opposition leader, Adrian Delia, in tax evasion and money laundering activities. The subsequent assassination of investigative journalist, Daphne Caruana Galizia who had worked on the Panama Papers, on 16 October 2017, after the June 2017 election, has remained prominent amid  the ongoing investigation. These have fed into a political crisis which eventually led to Prime Minister Muscat’s resignation on 13 January 2020. However, despite these developments, the PL was still widely viewed as the clear favourite to win a third term, thanks to a strong economic performance and the delivery of generous supports during the pandemic.

The Maltese Political Landscape 

Malta is a unicameral parliamentary system. A minimum of 34 seats are required for a majority in the 67-seat parliament which sits for a maximum of five years. MPs are elected from thirteen multi-seat districts which elect five representatives each, totalling 65, through direct universal suffrage using a single-transferable vote system - the only EU Member State besides Ireland to do so. 

Governments in Malta have alternated between the centre-right PN and centre-left PL since independence with third-party candidates effectively squeezed out. While there is robust political competition between the two major parties, they share a common consensus on their commitment to democracy, the rule of law and EU membership. Unlike most other EU countries, there have been no electorally significant anti-system parties in Malta, the most successful being the Maltese Communist Party (Partit Komunista Malti) in 1987 which polled 0.05%.

Malta is also notable for very high electoral turnouts, reaching 92% in 2017, down 1% from 2013, and considerable political partisanship, with voters very rarely splitting their ballots between parties. This has resulted in very narrow parliamentary majorities, hence the introduction of several constitutional amendments[1] which balance the relative representativeness against political stability. 

This election also marks the first parliamentary election in Malta in which 16 year olds could vote, following the expansion of the franchise in 2018. People aged 16-years and over have been able to vote in local elections and European Parliamentary elections in Malta since 2015, making Malta the second EU country to lower the voting age to 16 following Austria in 2008. Due to COVID-19, Maltese authorities also introduced drive-through voting. The campaign was also one of Malta’s most diverse, with six parties running alongside independents, although only PL and PN won parliamentary seats. 

Results and Analysis  

Table 1. Provisional Election Results (before extra seats are allocated)  

Party	No. of Seats  - 2022	No. of Seats  – 2017	Change Up/Down
Partit Laburista (PL)	38	37	+1
Partit Nazzjonalista (PN)	29	30	-1
AD+PD	0	2	-2

 

Clearly, the principal winner of this election was the incumbent centre-left PL which marginally increased its vote share and parliamentary representation to maintain its absolute majority. It is also a vote of confidence for Prime Minister Abela, in his first general election as leader since his appointment in 2020 following the resignation of Joseph Muscat.  This election also highlighted that relative support for both the PL and PN remains stable compared with the 2017 election. The PL increased their seats by one and vote share by 0.1%. Support for the PN declined by 0.41% to 41.7%, with the party losing one seat. 

Notably, there was also a record low turnout in this election, with 85.5% of voters going to the polls. This is very high relative to other EU countries, but is the lowest since independence with 295,000 valid votes cast, 15,000 less than 2017. Despite a decrease of their overall vote by 8,269, the PL still won the popular vote with 162,707 first preferences. The PN suffered from the depressed turnout, losing 12,463 votes compared to 2017. Combined with spoilt votes and absenteeism, over 60,000 eligible voters did not vote for any candidate, a record high. Alongside this abstentionism was an increase in support for independent and third-party candidates, whose support more than doubled from 3,993 in 2017 to 9,308 in 2022 (1.3% vs. 3.2%), although they failed to secure parliamentary representation. The number of female candidates was also at a record low, with only 33 women among the 139 candidates, and with only four successfully elected. This is the lowest number in 20 years, though the gender parity mechanism may increase this number to 12. 

The centre-right Nationalist Party (PN) was relatively stable, but still lost a seat, and endured a more severe drop in votes than PL, with a  PN leader, Bernard Grech, vowed to continue on as party leader to contest the leadership, as mandated by party statutes after every general election. His departure would mean a fourth PN leader in five years, contributing to an image of infighting and disorganisation within the party. The failure to reduce the gap with the PL has eroded the potential momentum to consolidate PN as a realistic government alternative, with the party facing into a tenth consecutive year in opposition. 

Smaller and independent parties also generally lost out The progressive ADPD lost both its seats, despite more than doubling its vote share and increasing its support nationwide. While the ADPD said they would contest the result in the hope of gaining a seat, the party chairperson, Carmel Cacopardo, indicated he would step down following the disappointing result. 

Campaign Concerns 

The increasing cost of energy was also central to this campaign. Along with most European governments, Malta has sought to manage the energy challenge by introducing subsidies for consumers. Notably, the incumbent PL government also benefitted from largely positive public perceptions of its management of the pandemic. Malta had among the most successful vaccine rollouts in Europe and the government introduced robust supports for firms and workers which contributed to solid economic growth. An increased focus on environmental issues also spurred greater engagement with green policies during the campaign which also helped the PL outflank the green progressive ADPD party as Prime Minister Abela promised a “greener Malta”. 

An increasingly salient issue in Malta are concerns over corruption and money-laundering, which have become more pressing since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. On 2 March 2022, Malta halted passport sales to Russian and Belarusian citizens over concerns it could circumvent Western sanctions. Malta is the sole EU country which continues to operate citizenship- and residency-by-investment schemes, following the termination of similar schemes in Cyprus and Bulgaria. Passports cost approximately €1million and 1 in 4 applicants are Russian citizens. The European Commission has launched a legal investigation into Maltese passport sales amid pleas from civil society to end the practice, claiming it facilitates corruption, embezzlement, tax evasion and money laundering. 

Maltese economic uncertainties have been further exacerbated by the “greylist” designation of Malta as a centre for money-laundering of illicit wealth by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental organisation monitoring money laundering and terrorist financing. The identification of “strategic deficiencies” in Malta’s financial services sector, now under increased FATF monitoring, has negatively impacted the political and economic reputation of Malta within the EU and internationally. Malta is also under investigation by the European Commission over its apparent failure to transpose an anti-money laundering directive 2018/1673 since February 2022. 

EU migration policy is also a political concern in Malta, although this has abated during the pandemic. As a small frontline island Member State in the Mediterranean, Malta is a strong supporter of mandatory relocation and EU solidarity.   

Possible Implications for the EU and Ireland  

The centre-left PL have been returned with a strengthened hand in domestic and European affairs with a new mandate to govern. Prime Minister Abela in his victory speech stated that he wished to involve the Opposition in government consultations and to make inroads to address the apparent political disillusionment of a growing cohort of voters.  

At the time of writing, the exact allocation of ministerial portfolios is yet to be decided. However, the broad direction of travel under PL is likely to remain unchanged, with a focus on the provision of greater social protections the form of increased pension subsidies and with the introduction of further measures to mitigate against both the pandemic and the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine.   

In terms of foreign policy, a PL government is unlikely to diverge from its present course, with a focus on reinforcing migration management, and the forging of closer links between the EU and Africa. Migration reform also remains a key Maltese policy concern, and the continued influx of Ukrainian refugees into the EU will likely spur a desire in Valetta for further reforms to the EU’s Migration and Asylum Pact. 

Viewed from Ireland, the Maltese election result is a positive sign for European political stability, and Prime Minister Abela will likely continue to align with fellow southern and Socialist-led governments by advocating for greater social protections and for the continued relaxation of EU fiscal rules in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The result will reinforce other social democratic parties in Europe and that exist between the two governments.

There remain however questions about rule of law and corruption in Malta, given its presence on the FATF greylist for money-laundering and the ongoing implications of the investigation into the assassination of investigative journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia in 2017.  Attempted restrictions on press freedoms through controversial legislative proposals and worries about a broader political culture of impunity post challenges for Malta’s future.  

EU affairs were not particularly prominent during the campaign, although pressure from other Member States and from the Maltese President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola (tipped as a future PN leader) during a special plenary with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, to end Malta’s controversial cash-for-passports policy did cut through. Indeed, Prime Minister Abela has suspended the scheme for Russian and Belarusian citizens, but it remains open.

This result reaffirms the resilience of EU social democratic parties, with the centre-left present in more EU governments than any other political group. Alongside leaders from Portugal, Spain, Germany, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, Malta is poised to be part of an influential geographic and political EU axes which will play a crucial role in reforming and reforging the Union’s future.