The Price of American Retreat: USAID’s Aid Freeze and Democratic Fragility in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans

This paper analyses how the 2025 USAID aid freeze has intensified democratic fragility in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans. Through cases including Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, and Kosovo, the paper shows how the sudden withdrawal of US support has weakened civil society and independent media, emboldened illiberal actors, and created openings for Russian influence, while considering whether the EU can fill the resulting gap.