This paper puts forward a longer-term view, beyond 2030, proposing a “carefully designed pricing mechanism”, that could secure both environmental integrity and economic resilience for Irish agriculture. Current projections show that existing policies will fall short of the required 25% reduction in agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, relative to 2018 levels. By 2023, emissions had decreased by just 2.9%. Even with planned measures, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) forecasts only a 16% reduction by 2030.

The paper critiques Ireland’s reliance on subsidies under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), noting that while these have driven high participation, they often reward existing practices rather than incentivising new emissions reductions. The paper proposes that emissions pricing, either through a levy/rebate system, such as in New Zealand and Denmark, or an agricultural emissions trading scheme (AgETS), could complement existing supports. This would assign a cost to emissions, encouraging more cost-effective and farm-specific mitigation strategies.

The papers principal recommendation is that Ireland begin as soon as possible a structured consultation process, establishing an independent Emissions Pricing Design Commission, modelled on Denmark’s expert group on green tax reform - to assess the feasibility and design of emissions pricing in Ireland’s agriculture sector.