Black Swans in the Grey Zone:  Defending Ireland’s Energy System Against Cyber Threats

This paper, by IIEA Security and Defence Researcher Cian FitzGerald, examines the threat posed to critical energy infrastructure and Irish society by hostile Russian cyber activities. As Russia’s armed forces continues to get bogged down in its war against Ukraine, Russia may increasingly seek to utilise other means to achieve its political aims by targeting European states such as Ireland. In this context, the Russian Federation may increasingly seek to undermine Western support for Ukraine through the use of Grey Zone activities such as cyberattacks on services crucial for the normal functioning of society in Europe. Ireland, due to its importance in global technology and communications coupled with its limited defence capabilities, may be a target of this form of Grey Zone aggression. This paper explores how Russia conducts cyberwarfare operations, often cloaking them so that they appear to be run of the mill cybercriminality, and the threat that it poses to Ireland’s energy infrastructure and society. Finally, this paper will examine how Ireland could enhance its resilience against these attacks using a whole-of-society approach to national defence which could enhance the ability of the State to respond to, and deter, Grey Zone aggression.