The 2022 Slovenian Elections Landslide for the Insurgents
On 24 April 2022, Slovenia held scheduled parliamentary elections for the 90 seat National Assembly (Državni zbor Republike Slovenije). The results saw victory for the newly established centre-left green Freedom Movement (Gibanje Svoboda), led by Robert Golob, and the defeat of incumbent centre-right Prime Minister, Janez Janša, and his Slovenian Democratic Party (Slovenska demokratska stranka, SDS).
Slovenian Politics in Brief
Slovenia has a nominally bicameral parliamentary system. The upper house, or National Council (Državni svet), represents sectoral social, economic, professional, and regional interests, and only exercises corrective measures. Similar to Seanad Éireann, it holds limited legislative powers.
In the 90 seat National Assembly (Državni zbor Republike Slovenije), representatives are elected for four-year terms, with 46 seats needed for a majority. 88 MPs are chosen via open party-list proportional representation in eight 11-seater constituencies. These seats are allocated by ranking candidates in order of votes received at constituency level; the remaining unallocated seats are then allocated to parties at the national level provided they reach a 4% threshold. Parties contesting elections must have at least a 65:35 gender balance, or 1/3 in the event of only three candidates running. The remaining two seats are reserved for the Italian- and Hungarian-speaking ethnic minorites which are elected by ranked-choice voting.
The outgoing government was a coalition government with 46 seats led by SDS leader Janez Janša, following the resignation of the liberal-leaning previous government under Prime Minister Marjan Šarec. Prime Minister Janša led a centre-right coalition government of the SDS, the social-liberal Modern Centre Party (Stranka modernega centra, SMC), the Christian democratic New Slovenia (Nova Slovenija, NSi), and the liberal elderly-focused Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije, DeSUS). This government was supported in parliament by the nationalist Slovenian National Party (Slovenska nacionalna Stranka, SNS) and representatives from the Italian and Hungarian ethnic minorities.
The opposition comprised the centre-left Social Democrats (Socialni demokrati SD), the ecosocialist Left party (Levica), two left-leaning liberal party lists of former prime ministers, Marjan Šarec (Lista Marjana Šarca, LMŠ) and Alenka Bratušek (Stranka Alenke Bratušek, SAB).
Results & Analysis
70.05% of the 1,697,200 eligible voters cast their ballots, with 1,118,764 votes submitted, 10,858 of which were invalid. This was up significantly from the previous election in 2018, where had a turnout of only 52.63%.
Party |
No. of Seats - 2022 |
No. of Seats – 2018 |
Change Up/Down |
Freedom Movement (Gibanje Svoboda) |
41 |
N/A |
+41 |
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) |
27 |
25 |
+2 |
New Slovenia (NSi) |
8 |
7 |
+1 |
Social Democrats (SD) |
7 |
10 |
-3 |
The Left (Levica) |
5 |
9 |
-4 |
Hungarian and Italian Ethnic Minorities |
2 |
2 |
- |
List of Marjan Šarec (LMŠ) |
0 |
13 |
-13 |
Slovenian National Party (SNS) |
0 |
4 |
-4 |
Modern Centre Party (SMC) |
0 |
10 |
-10 |
Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) |
0 |
5 |
-5 |
List of Alenka Bratušek (SAB) |
0 |
5 |
-5 |
A New Political Landscape
The election result can be understood as a vote against the illiberalism and conservative populist actions of Prime Minister Janša, as well as a repudiation of the fragmented political landscape in Slovenia. Ahead of the election, there were nine distinct political parties ranging from the far-left to the far-right (excluding the ethnic minority representatives). The collapse of the previous, unwieldy five-party centre-left government coalition in 2018 may have undermined public support in these parties: the Slovenian public strategically voted for the newly established green-liberal Freedom Movement, cannibalising support for the disparate left-wing parties and reducing the number of parties in parliament from nine to five. A record number of women were elected, with 36 out of the 90 seats now held by women. The Freedom Movement party has over 50% female elected representatives.
The overwhelming victory of the Freedom Movement party, which defied polling expectations, is significant: obtaining 35.43% of the vote and 41 seats, just shy of an absolute parliamentary majority. The sharp 18% increase in turnout and concentrated support against Mr Janša bolsters opposition claims that the election was a “referendum on democracy” in Slovenia and that voters wanted new leadership instead of established parties or leaders. In his victory speech, delivered remotely due to a COVID-19 infection, Mr Golob stated that his party’s victory “will enable us to take the country back to freedom,” and counter the creeping “Orbánisation” of Slovenia. The trend toward illiberalism is supported by independent studies, with Freedom House’s Nations in Transit 2022 report, noting that no country experienced as severe a decline in civil liberties as Slovenia. The report noted that significant political and financial pressure has been exerted on civil society, media organisations, independent judiciaries, and the European Public Prosecutor’s Office.
Despite coming second and losing control of the government, the right-wing SDS under Janez Janša gained two seats in parliament to 27, although their vote share fell slightly from 24.92% to 23.52% compared to 2018. Despite losing power, Mr Janša, is expected to remain leader of his party and become leader of the opposition. Whether he will be able to forge a new government coalition and profit from the collapse of an incumbent government as he did in 2020 is uncertain. Except for the Christian democratic NSi, all of SDS’ previous coalition partners, SMC, DeSUS and SNS, failed to reach the electoral threshold to enter parliament.
While both the Social Democrats and ecosocialist Levica lost seats, the relative lack of government experience within the Freedom Movement, which was only established in January 2022, could also offer an opportunity to increase their relative influence in a potential coalition arrangement. Freedom Movement leader, Mr Gobol, has also indicated that he would reach out to the two left parties who were voted out of office as part of the search for “professional and knowledgeable” staff for top government posts, which could further consolidate the left under a single party. Levica’s party leadership have tendered their collective resignation which could accelerate this development.
While Mr Golob’s Freedom Movement have won a substantial victory on an ecological, anti-corruption and liberal values ticket, they may face significant challenges. Public discontent and demonstrations against Mr Janša’s government, due to media restrictions and COVID-19 management, have been a boon for the opposition, in particular among younger voters, and it is likely that the Freedom Movement was the beneficiary of a significant protest vote against Mr Janša’s SDS-led government. How deeply this new support for the Freedom Movement runs among the electorate remains to be seen.
Implications for Ireland and the EU
A Freedom Movement led government in Ljubljana will ameliorate relations with the EU, especially in contrast with the Euroscepticism of Mr Janša and quarrels over funding for national broadcasters and appointments to the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO). There will likely be high public expectations to reverse the Janša-era legal reforms and remove Janša-era appointees to independent regulatory bodies and state media. A Freedom Movement led government will likely facilitate the appointment of prosecutors to the EPPO and support EU efforts to uphold the rule of law.
A core plank of the Freedom Movement’s manifesto was prioritising Slovenia’s green energy transition. Mr Golob’s professional background as a solar energy executive and the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will likely lend impetus to achieving this goal. The party has highlighted the health, finance and environment ministries as key policy priorities and, given the Freedom Movement’s emphasis on environmental action, Slovenia could be well positioned to move from a climate laggard to a climate leader within the EU.
On the European political stage, Mr Golob’s victory increases the relative representation of liberals in the European Council and contributes to the continuing decline of the centre-right EPP. The result also further isolates the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán within the EU, as Mr Janša’s SDS party is close to Fidesz which will no longer be able to count on the support of the Slovenian Government within the EU.
The new Slovenian parliament will have the fewest parties since it was established, with just five, and Freedom Movement has won the single-largest number of seats of any party since independence with 41. The COVID-19 pandemic played little role in the campaign, although protests against the Mr Janša government’s handling of the pandemic may have helped to structure opposition support. The Russian invasion of Ukraine was also not a key factor, as all the major parties were aligned on supporting Ukraine, although SDS-aligned media outlets did allege Russian interference in the campaign, but this remains unverified.
As a small, outwardly oriented economy within the EU, Slovenia shares similar interests and concerns with Ireland in terms of upholding the rule of law, fostering economic competitiveness, and meeting the challenges of the green transition. Whether the Freedom Movement victory signals a new era for Slovenian politics or if it is weighed down by the expectations and hopes placed on it however, remains to be seen.