The 2022 Danish Elections: Social Democrats Secure

On Tuesday, 1 November 2022, Denmark held snap parliamentary elections for the 179 seat Folketinget national parliament, called due to a Borgen-esque “mink crisis” and dominated by domestic policy concerns relating to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The outcome saw the incumbent Social Democrats emerge as the single largest party and as leaders of the left-wing “red-bloc” under Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. In contrast, the centre-right “blue-bloc” led by Liberal Party leader Jakob Ellemann-Jensen lost seats following internal splits, while the far-right Danish People’s Party had its worst ever result. The parties are now in government formation talks, with a choice between a left-wing alliance or a broad centrist coalition.

Danish Politics in Brief

The Kingdom of Denmark is a constitutional monarchy with a unicameral parliament, which together with the autonomous Greenland and Faroe Islands, holds elections every three-to-four years. The 179 members of the Folketinget are elected by proportional representation, provided they reach a 2% national threshold, with 175 MPs elected from ten constituencies across Denmark (135 via party-list proportional representation, and 40 allocated to ensure national proportionality) with an additional two Faroese and Greenlandic MPs each.

Ahead of the election the Social Democrats (Socialdemokraterne) were the largest party in parliament, with 48 seats, leading a minority government under Prime Minister Frederiksen supported by the red-bloc parties, the Social Liberal Party (Radikale Venstre), Green Left (Socialistisk Folkeparti) and the Red-Green Alliance (Enhedslisten De Rød Grønne). Following a parliamentary investigation into the government order to cull Denmark’s entire captive mink population to protect humans from potential COVID-19 mutations, Radikale Venstre withdrew their support, threatening a no-confidence vote which triggered early elections.

The opposition was represented by the right-wing “blue-bloc” which includes the Liberal Alliance, the Conservative People's Party (Konservative Folkepartei), Liberal Party (Venstre), as well as the New Right (Nye Borgerlige), far-right Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkepartei), and the far-left green Alternative Party (Alternativet).

Results & Analysis

84.2% of 4,269.048 eligible voters cast their ballots, down marginally compared to the last election in 2019 which had a turnout of 84.6%.

Table 1. Election Results (Denmark, Faroe Islands and Greenland)

Party	No. of Seats - 2022	No. of Seats – 2019	Change Up/Down
Denmark
Social Democrats (Socialdemokraterne)	50	48	+2
Liberal Party (Venstre)	23	43	-20
Moderates (Moderaterne)	16	N/A	+16
Green Left (Socialistisk Folkeparti)	15	14	+1
Liberal Alliance	14	4	-1
Denmark Democrats (Danmarksdemokraterne)	14	N/A	+14
Conservative People’s Party (Konservative Folkepartei)	10	12	-2
Red-Green Alliance (Enhedslisten De Rød Grønne)	9	13	-4
Social Liberal Party (Radikale Venstre)	7	16	-9
Alternative (Alternativet)	6	5	+1
Danish People’s Party (Dansk Folkepartei)	5	16	-11
New Right (Nye Borgerlige)	5	4	+1
Independents/Non-Aligned	1	0	+1
Faroe Islands
Social Democratic Party (Javnaðarflokkurin)	1	1	-
Union Party (Sambandsflokkurin)	1	1	-
Greenland
Community of the People (Inuit Ataqatigiit)	1	1	-
Forward (Siumut)	1	1	-

 

The results were very positive for the Socialdemokraterne who secured 27.6% of the vote and 49 seats, and also the worst result in recent history for the centre-right Venstre, resulting in a slim one seat majority for the red-bloc. This was exacerbated by the effective fragmentation of the traditional centre-right party of government, Venstre¸ with the departure of former prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, who established the centre-right Moderaterne, and the anti-immigration far-right Denmark Democrats (Danmarksdemokraterne) led by former immigration minister Inger Støjberg, both founded in 2022. These two parties, alongside the libertarian Liberal Alliance, also took away from Venstre .Scandals around the personal life of the Christian democratic Konservative Folkepartei leader, also contributed to a fracturing of the Danish right-bloc and undermined support for the far-right populist Dansk Folkepartei. The centrist Radikale Venstre suffered considerable losses, likely related to their association with bringing down the government, but the results still enable them to participate in a potential coalition on either the right or left.

 

The crucial question is now what government Prime Minister Frederiksen will pursue. Following the election, Ms. Frederiksen reiterated her offer of cooperation with other parties to forge a “grand coalition” of the centre. This prospect would break the tradition left/right bloc system which has long dominated Danish politics, but the concept of a “grand coalition” carries negative connotations in Denmark relating to the previous short-lived and acrimonious grand coalition in 1978. Such a centrist alliance could be formed of the Socialdemokraterne (50), with the support of three social democrats from the Faroe Islands and Greenland, and Venstre (23) with the support of the Moderaterne (16), to reach the 90-seat threshold for a majority.

However, despite polling which suggested a narrow loss for the centre-left, the results mean that the red-bloc could form a one-seat majority of 90 if the Socialdemokraterne, Socialistisk Folkeparti, Enhedslisten De Rød Grønne, Radikale Venstre and the Faroe Islands and Greenland socialist parties form a coalition. This possibility diminishes the influence of the Moderaterne leader Rasmussen as a potential kingmaker within any centrist coalition, but government formation talks will likely be difficult and take considerable time.

If a left-wing coalition is formed, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen will be the probable leader of the opposition, provided he remains Venstre leader following the considerable electoral losses. Another important note is that while the far-right populist Dansk Folkepartei had their worst-ever result, losing 11 seats and barely meeting the electoral threshold, their anti-immigration policy position has become the norm across the Danish political spectrum.

Implications for Ireland and the EU 

The election result has solidified Mette Frederiksen and the Socialdemokraterne as the preeminent political force within Denmark, and they will likely continue to pursue their centre-left economic policies and maintain a strong line on restricting immigration. A key question will be whether the future government is another left-wing coalition or else a more centrist government with the centre-right Venstre and Moderaterne parties, which may follow a less fiscally expansionary economic policy. Given the very slim majorities of the possible government coalitions, the departure or defection of one or two MPs could potentially collapse a government, although a minority government may be relatively stable given Danish experiences with regular inter-party cooperation and bargaining.

The entry of five new parties with 14 now in parliament may contribute greater political fragility in Denmark, although the bloc system will likely minimise the impact. While immigration policy within Denmark is unlikely to change regardless of the future government composition, Danish support for a more open trade policy and opposition to increased public expenditure and take-up of debt may be affected by a more left-wing government. The ongoing decline of the far-right Dansk Folkepartei could also portend a potentially broader trend where far-right populists lose support once their signature policies become accepted political wisdom, mirroring the decline of UKIP in the UK. The success of the Sweden Democrats and Fratelli d’Italia simply mirroring the earlier surge that the Dansk Folkepartei once enjoyed in Denmark. Regardless, Danish foreign policy is unlikely to change significantly, including the Danish commitment to common European defence and support for broadly liberal economic policies.

Whether Danish politics continues on its present course, or whether the election portends a shift in Denmark policy positions within Europe remains to be seen, but the results of the election will certainly be of great interest to small, liberal countries like Ireland.