European election results: a pyrrhic victory for the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland?

Joseph Curtin

The pro-Lisbon camp may feel quietly satisfied at the outcome of the European elections in Ireland. When the dust had settled, the result read 11-1 in favour of pro-Lisbon candidates, a fairly comprehensive scoreline by any assessment.

Together the “establishment” parties’ representation in the European Parliament will remain unchanged, despite the decrease in the number of available seats from thirteen to twelve. While Fine Gael (FG) and Fianna Fail (FF) both lost a seat (retaining four and three seats respectively), Labour gained two seats and now have a total of three. The final pro-Lisbon candidate is the independent Marian Harkin who retained her seat in the North West.

The Socialist Party’s leader, Joe Higgins, scored the sole anti-Lisbon goal (albeit late in injury time) when he was elected to the final seat in the Dublin constituency in the small hours of Monday morning.

Furthermore, two sitting MEPs who played central roles in the anti-Lisbon Treaty campaign had their democratic mandates revoked. Most notably, Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou MacDonald – who was one of the most vociferous anti-Treaty voices – lost out in Dublin. In the South, the independent anti-Lisbon MEP Kathy Sinnott was also defeated, leaving three pro-Lisbon MEPs in that constituency.

Last and perhaps most significantly, the highest profile casualty from the anti-Lisbon camp was the founder of Libertas, Declan Ganley. Not only did Mr. Ganley fail to get elected – more than 35,000 votes adrift of the third placed candidate – his attempt to conquer all Europe from his Tuam stronghold was not entirely successful.

Of the over 600 candidates that Libertas claimed to have fielded in the election only one was elected. If the election truly was the “last chance to stop the Lisbon Constitution” then the Treaty’s future must be more secure than for some time.

Indeed, further to his defeat, Ganley removed himself from the fray in the event of a second referendum on the Treaty in Ireland, and his loss is surely a big blow to the ‘No’ side.

It would of course be naive to suggest that the European election results can be taken as a proxy for results in a second referendum. Clearly voters had other local, regional and national issues on their minds. This can be clearly seen from transfer patterns among anti-Lisbon candidates: in the North West only 25% of Pádraig Mac Lochlainn’s (SF) preferences went to Ganley, with the remainder being divided almost evenly among the remaining pro-Lisbon candidates (ironically enough resulting in the election of all three).

It is undeniable, however, that the mood in Ireland has swung decisively in favour of the Lisbon Treaty. The most recent opinion poll from June 7 suggests that nearly twice as many people intend to vote ‘Yes‘ to Lisbon as ’No‘, with only 18% remaining undecided.

So is Lisbon all but home and hosed leaving Ireland off the hook in the eyes of its European partners?

Developments not too distant from these shores might suggest that a final twist may remain in what is fast becoming a most engaging of European-wide political soap operas. In the UK, the Labour government was beaten into third place by the UK Independence Party in the European elections, dealing a potentially mortal blow to the Brown government.

Although Prime Minister Brown has succeeded in convincing his party to rally behind him for the moment, it is hard to escape the impression that he may well be suffering the most painful of all political fates – death by a thousand cuts.

If his government were to collapse before an Irish referendum in the autumn, it is likely that David Cameron would call a referendum himself, inevitably leading to Lisbon carnage (for detailed analysis of implications.

Although it might be a relief for political leaders in Ireland to have someone else to blame for the defeat of the Lisbon Treaty, it is unlikely that Ireland would escape to opprobrium from such a catastrophic scenario. So although the June 7 battle may have been won, the date may eventually be remembered as our own Heraclea.

Another possible scenario which could be labelled “grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory” is also now plausible. Mr. Cameron recently announced that he would call a referendum on Lisbon whether Ireland had passed the Treaty or not in a move that could be interpreted as a toughening of the Conservative Party’s stance.

Were he to go down this road some time in 2010 (a general election will occur in the UK by June 2010 at the latest) and were British voters to reject the Lisbon Treaty, Europe would be entering legally uncharted waters. Lisbon, remember, requires the unanimous agreement of 27 Member States to enter into force. The question is what will happen if one Member State subsequently reverses the decision of a previous government with a mandate from its people and rescinds the Treaty?

At least in this scenario Ireland could join the rest of Europe in throwing scorn on our awfully anti-European neighbours.

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