Enlargement: An Irish Perspective

13 Feb 2012

James Kilcourse

At a briefing to IIEA members on the European Commission’s 2011 Annual Enlargement Report on 1^st February 2012, Anne Barrington, Director-General of Europe Division in the Department of Foreign Affairs, used the opportunity to share Ireland’s positions on the European Union’s enlargement policy and latest developments in this area.

DG Barrington focused particularly on the transformative role of enlargement policy in the Western Balkans. She welcomed the fact that Croatia is now an acceding state to the EU and noted that Ireland hopes to ratify the Croatian Accession Treaty by the end of this year. Croatia’s success shows the way for the other countries of the Western Balkans, she said, as they will soon be able to see the tangible political, economic and social benefits that EU membership offers. DG Barrington asserted that Croatian accession is also a powerful signal that the EU keeps its promises. She pointed out that the closing of Croatia’s accession talks means that there is now no Western Balkan country engaged in enlargement negotiations. This, she argued, is a somewhat damning indictment of the commitment made by the EU to these countries at the Thessaloniki Summit of 2003. At this summit the EU declared its ‘unequivocal support to the European perspective of the Western Balkan countries’ and proclaimed that ‘the future of the Balkans is within the European Union’. Ireland’s Presidency of the Council of the European Union in 2013 will mark ten years since this commitment was made and will, according to DG Barrington, be an opportune time to reflect on progress to date. She added that Ireland is not, and never has been, one of those countries calling for a pause in the enlargement agenda after Croatia. Ireland continues to be a strong advocate of the enlargement process and of the European future of the Western Balkan countries.

DG Barrington was critical of the fact that the enlargement agenda is increasingly becoming hostage to the domestic concerns of individual EU member states. Speak of enlargement in Serbia, she explained, and they refer to the intransigence of Germany; in Macedonia, to Greece; in Montenegro, to France; and, most obviously, in Turkey, Cyprus is seen as the main stumbling block to accession. She suggested that the continual blocking of progress by these member states due to their domestic concerns could prove to be very damaging for the EU as it could cause an erosion of public support for EU membership in the prospective member states.

While we often hear about “enlargement fatigue”, we are equally at risk of “accession fatigue”, she argued. If countries in the Western Balkans can see no imminent prospect of EU accession, then they will eventually tire of the painful reforms that are being demanded of them. Conditionality is important in the accession negotiation process but it is also crucial that the process remains credible. According to DG Barrington, credibility means that the conditions should not become so unrealistic that they prevent countries from progressing on the path to EU membership. She stressed that, without credible prospects, the EU’s influence in the region will recede and the risk of radical forms of nationalism reappearing around unresolved contentious issues in the region will increase. When weighing up the cost of enlargement, she said, we must bear in mind the cost of non-enlargement.

The European Commission’s Enlargement Progress Report in 2011 recommended that both Serbia and Montenegro be granted candidate status. DG Barrington reported that Ireland strongly supported the Commission’s opinion and hoped that the two states would be accepted as official candidates at the European Council summit in December. This was not the outcome. In the case of Serbia, the Council recognised the progress that Serbia made in 2011 but some member states remained doubtful about Serbia’s commitment to dialogue with Kosovo. The Commission was satisfied that Montenegro had fulfilled all of its commitments and was ready to begin accession negotiations. However, some member states expressed concern about the state of the rule of law in Montenegro and demanded that a start be made on this issue before the opening of accession talks. DG Barrington was critical of this introduction of new conditionality for these two prospective states and stated that Ireland would push hard for an agreement to grant candidate status to Serbia and Montenegro.

She went on to argue that Ireland is in favour of opening negotiations with prospective candidate countries once the Commission deems them ready. Accession negotiations are a lengthy process taking quite a number of years. For this reason, any concerns on the part of member states can be tackled during accession talks rather than constantly moving the goalposts and delaying the start of talks. After all, she asserted, the EU’s leverage is strongest during the accession process. Leaving these countries in the anteroom of EU membership deprives the EU of its influence and can result in a reversal of reforms previously enacted. In the case of Serbia, for example, she warned that the perceived perfidiousness of the EU at December’s Council summit could result in election defeat later this year for the moderate parties that have pursued membership of the Union.

The prospects for the remaining Western Balkan states are, according to DG Barrington, not encouraging.

·      Macedonia was granted candidate status in 2005 and in its report last year the Commission repeated for the third time its recommendation that accession negotiations be opened. She explained, however, that as long as the constitutional name of the state remains unresolved between Greece and Macedonia, it will remain a major roadblock to the latter’s accession process.

·      Both Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina experienced domestic political stalemate in 2011, which prevented progress in reforms. According to DG Barrington, the breakthroughs achieved in November in Albania and December in Bosnia give reason for hope that the two states will now begin to address the reforms required for EU integration.

·      Kosovo, by dent of the fact that five EU members do not recognise the state, does not have any contractual relations with the EU, even though the EU is heavily involved in the architecture of the Kosovan state. DG Barrington stated that Kosovo has a very long path to travel on the road to EU integration but there is political commitment and belief in Kosovo that the country can make rapid progress. She asserted that Ireland, which was one of the first countries to recognise the independent Republic of Kosovo, will continue to support efforts in Kosovo’s path to European integration.

In relation to other issues in the area of enlargement that may be relevant during Ireland’s Presidency of the European Council, DG Barrington noted that Iceland is currently the only prospective member with whom negotiations are actively progressing. Although Iceland already meets most of the accession criteria and there is little concern about its institutional capacity to join the Union, DG Barrington suggested that the complexity of the EU acquis makes Iceland’s objective of completing negotiations during the Irish Presidency somewhat ambitious. The chapters dealing with agriculture and fisheries will require great effort and ingenuity on both sides, she said. While Ireland will support Iceland in every way it can, it is preparing for intense negotiations on these issues during the Irish Presidency. Fisheries in particular remain a key concern for Ireland given Iceland’s unilateral increase in its declared allowable catch of mackerel. However, DG Barrington stated that Ireland is hopeful that a deal on Iceland’s share of the total allowable catch of mackerel can be reached before entry into the EU and she does not see this issue as hampering accession talks. Indications from the Commission are that the chapter on fisheries will be pushed out as one of the last to be negotiated and, as a result, will likely fall to the Irish Presidency in 2013.

Finally, DG Barrington discussed the long-standing aspirations of Turkey to become a member of the EU. Although progress in accession negotiations has been very slow since they began in 2005, she affirmed that Ireland remains strongly supportive of the Turkish candidacy. Ireland has subscribed to successive European Council conclusions, including those of last December, which have highlighted the progress made by Turkey and the need to accelerate the pace of reforms. DG Barrington went on to outline Ireland’s reasons for supporting Turkey’s aspirations for membership: the ability to bring about positive reforms in Turkey through the accession process; the potential gains that a larger internal market could provide for a small, open economy like Ireland; the potential for increased trade; and, finally, the positive impact for Ireland of a stronger EU, with Turkey bringing closer ties to countries of the Middle East and Central Asia. She warned that the EU must maintain its commitment to Turkey or it risks losing a strategic partner and a very significant political and economic player in the wider region. Accession remains a distant prospect for Turkey and, returning to the idea of “accession fatigue”, she argued that public opinion in Turkey may not remain so supportive of EU membership in the long term. Turkey’s relations with Cyprus remain the primary complicating factor in its accession process. The Turkish response to the Cypriot Presidency of the Council of the EU later this year is to freeze relations with the Council for the duration of the Presidency. Taking up the Presidency role directly after Cyprus, DG Barrington suggested that Ireland may face a range of challenges in advancing Turkey’s enlargement agenda.

In conclusion, DG Barrington described enlargement as one of the EU’s most successful policies that concretely contributes to the overarching aims and ambitions of the Union. She argued that the 2004 enlargement, which was in effect the reunification of the European continent, demonstrated the EU’s transformative power.  Enlargement policy remains the EU’s most effective tool in supporting reform and transformation in the region. From the EU’s point of view, the adoption by the Western Balkan countries of EU values assures stability and irreversible political reform, which contributes to both our security and our economic prosperity. For this reason, she concluded, Ireland will remain an ardent supporter of EU enlargement policy.

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