Bolters and Bombers

18 May 2009

Joseph Curtin

Bolters and Bombers: Ones to Watch in European Parliamentary Elections ‘09

In sporting jargon, shock selections are often referred to as “bolters”, a reference, one supposes, to a bolt of lightning. Traditionally, these bolters tend to fall into one of two categories: the “young gun” breaking through from the junior ranks for the first time, lacking in experience but compensating with enormous enthusiasm and self-confidence; or the “old soldier”, the wily and experienced campaigner.

In the recent selection of the British and Irish Lions squad to tour South Africa, for example, there were arguably two such bolters, one from each category. Keith Earls, the young Munster speedster, only 21 and with but a single international cap to boast, falls into the category of “young gun”, while Alan Quinlan, the seasoned Munster flanker who has not played international rugby in years, could definitely be considered an “old soldier”.

But what of the upcoming European Parliamentary elections in Ireland? With the traditional power of incumbency so strong in European contests, are we likely to witness any bolters of either category? Will the rapidly shifting sands of Irish politics in recent times lead to any high profile casualties, or will it be a case of “as you were” after the June elections?

The Dublin constituency certainly has the potential to throw up an occasional surprise. In 1994, Patricia McKenna (then a candidate for the Green Party) wasn’t widely fancied; nor for that matter was Mary Lou McDonald (SF) in 2004. With the reduction of seats from four to three and all four incumbents standing for re-election, a tough contest is anticipated. While the smart money would be on Gay Mitchell (FG), Proinsias de Rossa (Lab) and Eoin Ryan (FF) retaining their seats, some feel that the latter may be vulnerable.

While Mary Lou McDonald (SF) has a strong support base and high profile in the constituency, if we are looking for a bolter, the Green Party’s “young gun”, Déirdre de Búrca, who has never been elected to Dáil Éireann, might be a decent outside bet. Her highly visible campaign has been up and running for some weeks now and has captured plenty of media attention. Eibhlin Byrne (FF), Joe Higgins (SP), Caroline Simons (Libertas) and Patricia McKenna (Ind) make up the field.

In the South constituency the three sitting MEPs, Colm Burke (FG), Brendan Crowley (FF) and Kathy Sinnott (Ind) will all stand for reelection. Brian Crowley is considered untouchable in the constituency, while Burke and Sinnott will have to fight it out with a number of other contenders for the remaining two seats. If we were to pick a “bolter” it would have to be the high-profile “old soldier” Seán Kelly (FG), a former president of the GAA, who may well rise at the expense of Kathy Sinnott. Alan Kelly (Lab) may also contest strongly, though Ned O’Keeffe (FF), Toiréasa Ferris (SF) and Dan Boyle (Green) are unlikely to make deep inroads.

In Leinster the field is left wide open for a bolter with Avril Doyle’s (FG) recently announced retirement. Liam Aylward (FF) and Mairead McGuinness (FG) are almost certain to retain their seats. Thomas Byrne (FF) will act as a sweeper for Aylward in the Northern part of the constituency. Nessa Childers (Lab) would be the favorite to win the final seat but John Paul Phelan (FG), the youngest Senator in the Seanad, might prove himself a bolter. He will be strongest on the Southern Kilkenny end of the constituency, far from McGuinness’ support base further North. Fine Gael might well repeat their success of 2005 by electing two candidates in the constituency. Kathleen Funchion (SF), Raymond O’Malley (Libertas) and Tomás Sharkey (SF) are also running.

In the North East Constituency, Seán Ó Neachtain’s (FF) surprise departure from the race leaves the field wide open for bolters of all stripes and hues. Marian Harkin (Ind) and Jim Higgins (FG) are both putting themselves forward for reelection, and the latter is likely to fight of all challengers. A number of candidates, however, may contest strongly with Marian Harkin for the remaining two seats.

Pat “the Cope” Gallahher (FF) and Pascal Mooney (FF) will battle it out to replace their retiring colleague. While Pádraig mac Lochlainn (SF) and Joe O’Reilly (FG) have a lot of support, neither Declan Ganley (Libertas) nor Susan O’Keeffe (Lab) should be discounted entirely.

Ganley in particularly has proven himself to a savvy operator, and is likely to run a slick and well-resourced campaign. Poor attendances at two recent public meetings, however, have drawn into question his ability to mobilise large numbers and the election of Ganley would therefore perhaps represent the brightest bolt of all if successful. A more likely prospect on this occasion is Pádraig mac Lochlainn who is certain to poll well in the Donegal area. The challenge for this young gun will be to build a successful campaign throughout the sprawling North-West constituency if he wants to bolt onto the European stage in early June.

And if unsuccessful, well then there’s always the Lions tour to look forward to.

 

 

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